Join us at ETHDenver 2026 for a special edition of the Whitepaper Reading roundtable, dissecting the protocols, primitives and design choices. Hosted at the LVC, National Western Center.
Topics:
1. The Super Bowl of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket’s Battle for Price vs Liquidity
An empirical comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket across every NFL game in the 2025 season. The study finds Kalshi leads price adjustments by ~7 seconds, but Polymarket requires 3–4× more volume to move prices by the same amount — suggesting that faster markets aren’t always deeper ones. We’ll discuss the market design choices driving these differences and what they mean for prediction market infrastructure.
Authors: Ally Zach + Danning Sui from Pantera Capital
2. Prediction Markets as Bayesian Inverse Problems
A formal framework for inferring event outcomes from observed price-volume histories. The paper models prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems under a latent mixture of trader types — covering informed and uninformed trading, microstructure noise, and adversarial flow. It provides tools for quantifying when market data is actually informative vs. when inference breaks down.
Authors: Juan P. Madrigal-Cianci, Camilo Monsalve Maya, and Lachlan Breakey from Kosmos Ventures
Links: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.18815
Topic Leads:
Jay Yu of Pantera Capital
Danning of Pantera Capital
Derrick of Big Brain Ventures
🗓 Tuesday, February 17, 2026
🕔 Time: 1:30 PM – 4:00 PM MST
📍 LVC at the National Western Center
4850 National Western Dr · Denver, CO
✨ ETHDenver 2026 is the largest Web3 #BUIDLathon in the world for Ethereum and other blockchain protocol enthusiasts, designers and developers. Blockchain companies from around the world will host events in an open source format, inviting all to attend.
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